THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON January 23, 2014 @ 6:40 am
Avalanche Forecast published on January 22, 2014 @ 6:40 am
Issued by Brandon Schwartz - Tahoe National Forest

Avalanche danger is LOW at all elevations on snow covered NW-N-NE-E aspects. Avalanche danger is generally nonexistent on SE-S-SW-W aspects due to a lack of snowcover.

1. Low

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Above Treeline
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

1. Low

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Near Treeline
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

1. Low

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Below Treeline
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
    Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
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At this time triggering an avalanche is unlikely on a regional scale. Given that the existing snowpack is composed mainly of weak faceted snow that looks nothing like what is typically found in this region at this time of year, finding a localized area of unstable snow is not an impossible scenario. The most likely area to encounter snowpack instability is near treeline and below treeline on NW-N-NE aspects. In these areas, well developed weak layers of faceted snow exist. The degree to which a slab capable of sustaining propagation exists on top of these weak layers is variable from one location to the next. In areas where a significant slab does exists, it has become very difficult to trigger an avalanche. That said, keep the odds stacked in your favor by exposing only one person at a time to avalanche terrain and by moving from one well established safe zone to another.

recent observations
Submit Observations

Observations made yesterday on Lincoln Ridge (Yuba Pass area) matched well with other recent observations from around the forecast area. A weak but stable snowpack exists in the areas of continuous snowcover which are found on NW-N-NE-E aspects. In these areas the snowpack is composed mainly of faceted snow, with the deepest snowpack found near and below treeline on NW-N-NE aspects. Faceted weak layers that exist in these areas have shown the ability to support the weight of the overlying snowpack plus the weight of a person. Occasionally, snowpit tests point out that some of these weak layers still hold the ability to propagate if weak layer collapse could be triggered. At this time, triggering the necessary weak layer collapse is difficult to accomplish and unlikely to occur.

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Today will be another day of sunny skies, maximum daytime air temperatures above 7,000' in the mid to upper 40s, and generally light northeast winds. A couple of weak weather disturbances are approaching the region. The first is expected to arrive tonight. The associated cold front passage will drop maximum daytime air temperatures about 10 degrees for tomorrow as compared to today. Ridgetop winds out of the northeast to east will increase in speed tonight and are expected to mix out the air temperature inversion for Thursday. No precipitation is expected from these weak weather disturbances.

CONDITIONS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN 8200 FT. AND 9200 FT. IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
Weather Station Map
Weather Station Table
6am temperature: 33 to 40 deg. F.
Max. temperature: 46 to 51 deg. F.
Average ridgetop wind direction: Southwest shifting to east
Average ridgetop wind speed: 14 mph
Maximum ridgetop wind gust: 27 mph
New snowfall: 0 inches
Total snow depth: 8 to 15 inches
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS
For 7000 ft. to 8000 ft.
Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather: Sunny skies. Clear Partly cloudy skies.
Temperatures: 43 to 50 deg. F. 22 to 28 deg. F. 33 to 40 deg. F.
Mid Slope Winds: Northeast Northeast East
Wind Speed: 10 to 15 mph 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. 10 to 15 mph
Expected snowfall: 0 0 0
For 8000 ft. to 9000 ft.
Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather: Sunny skies. Clear skies. Partly cloudy skies.
Temperatures: 44 to 50 deg. F. 22 to 29 deg. F. 33 to 39 deg. F.
Ridge Top Winds: Northeast Northeast East
Wind Speed: 10 to 15 mph 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Expected snowfall: 0 0 0
Disclaimer

This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.